Lakers vs. Spurs Prediction: Los Angeles Enters NBA Cup Quarterfinal as Heavy Favorite With Wembanyama Out

The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs meet tonight in a high-stakes NBA Cup quarterfinal matchup at Crypto.com Arena. With a 5.5-point spread favoring the Lakers, oddsmakers expect Los Angeles to advance comfortably—but the Spurs arrive eager to deliver one of the season’s biggest upsets.

The single-elimination format raises the stakes significantly. One team moves on; the other’s tournament run ends instantly.

Lakers Hold Strong Advantage Entering Tipoff

The Lakers enter tonight’s game with a 17-6 record and a dominant 9-2 home performance this season. Sportsbooks list Los Angeles at -225 on the moneyline, while San Antonio sits at +185, reflecting the uphill battle the Spurs face on the road.

With LeBron James and Luka Dončić both available, the Lakers bring elite offensive firepower into the quarterfinals. Los Angeles also regains defensive anchor Marcus Smart, who returns from injury in a timely boost.

The total for tonight’s game is set at 236.5 points, projecting a fast-paced offensive contest.

Wembanyama’s Absence Shifts the Entire Matchup

San Antonio’s challenge becomes even steeper with Victor Wembanyama ruled out due to a lingering hamstring strain. The rookie superstar has missed 10 consecutive games and remains the centerpiece of the Spurs’ defensive identity and offensive spacing.

Wembanyama averages 26.2 points per game, and his absence forces San Antonio to rely heavily on Devin Vassell and a committee of shooters. Without their 7-foot-4 phenom, the Spurs must find ways to protect the rim and generate consistent scoring—two tasks made more difficult against a veteran Lakers roster.

Tonight’s spread reflects the magnitude of Wembanyama’s absence. Oddsmakers widened the line significantly after his injury was confirmed.

Matchup Breakdown

Can San Antonio Still Pull Off the Upset?

Despite the disadvantage, the Spurs have upset potential. They recently shot 47.2% from three in a game without Wembanyama, proving they can stay competitive when their perimeter game is firing.

The key for San Antonio will be three-point efficiency, defensive rotation discipline, and slowing the Lakers’ transition attack. If Vassell can create early momentum, the Spurs may keep the contest tight into the fourth quarter.

Still, Los Angeles’ depth, star power, and home court advantage give them a clear edge. The Lakers thrive in high-pressure environments, and tonight’s tournament intensity can amplify that advantage.

Prediction: Will the Spread Hold?

The Lakers enter as rightful favorites at -5.5, and professional bettors appear aligned with that assessment. Without Wembanyama, the Spurs face a steep climb to stay competitive against a playoff-caliber Lakers squad.

Tonight’s game tips off at 10 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with the winner advancing to Saturday’s semifinal round. If Los Angeles delivers the performance oddsmakers expect, they may be on a clear path toward the NBA Cup title.