How Nathan MacKinnon’s 2025–26 season compares to past MVP campaigns

Key Points

• Nathan MacKinnon leads early Hart, Art Ross, and Rocket Richard projections with a dominant scoring pace.
• Cale Makar emerges as the clear Norris Trophy favorite with elite two‑way metrics.
• Rookie Matthew Schaefer headlines the Calder Trophy race with standout minutes and production.
• Jeremy Swayman tops the Vezina Trophy field with strong numbers in net for Boston.
• Nick Suzuki leads early Selke Trophy projections as the league’s top defensive forward.

A Quarter Into the Season, NHL Award Races Take Shape

With the 2025–26 NHL season officially 25% complete, early frontrunners are emerging across the league’s major awards. From MVP-caliber performances to breakout rookie campaigns, the first stretch of the season has already produced compelling narratives that could define the awards landscape by spring.

Here’s a closer look at the leading contenders for the Hart, Norris, Selke, Calder, Vezina, Art Ross, and Rocket Richard trophies as of November 30.

Hart Trophy: MacKinnon Sets the Pace

The Hart Trophy, awarded to the league’s most valuable player, currently runs through Nathan MacKinnon. The Colorado Avalanche superstar is on a blistering pace of 66 goals and 144 points, driving a 35–9 on‑ice record during his minutes.

Other early contenders include:

• Cale Makar – elite two‑way impact for Colorado
• Jason Robertson – powering the Dallas Stars’ strong start
• Brandon Hagel – key offensive force for Tampa Bay
• Jack Eichel – anchoring Vegas’ top line

MacKinnon’s combination of scoring, possession dominance, and team impact makes him the clear early favorite.

Norris Trophy: Makar Leads a Deep Field

The Norris Trophy race is headlined by Cale Makar, who is projected to hit 105 points while leading all defensemen in expected goals metrics. His blend of offensive production and defensive reliability continues to set the standard at the position.

Challengers include:

• Adam Fox – near point‑per‑game pace in a strong comeback season
• Zach Werenski – steady shutdown presence
• Josh Morrissey – consistent play‑driving force
• Matthew Schaefer – standout rookie already excelling in a shutdown role

Selke Trophy: Suzuki’s Defensive Game Shines

The Selke Trophy, honoring the NHL’s top defensive forward, currently favors Nick Suzuki, who leads the league with an impressive 2.27 xGA/60 at five‑on‑five.

Other notable candidates:

• Mikael Backlund – strong defensive play despite Calgary’s struggles
• Mitch Marner – effective but not consistently matched against top lines
• Leon Draisaitl – solid numbers but fewer matchup minutes
• Matty Beniers – emerging as a reliable two‑way center

Calder Trophy: Schaefer Headlines Rookie Class

The Calder Trophy race is shaping up around Matthew Schaefer, who is logging 23.3 minutes per game and is projected to surpass 60 points as an 18‑year‑old. His early performance suggests the potential of a generational talent.

Other rookies in contention:

• Alex Nikishin – strong expected goals profile
• Ivan Demidov – on pace for 65 points
• Yaroslav Askarov – standout goaltending numbers

Vezina Trophy: Swayman Leads Goaltenders

Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman currently tops the Vezina Trophy race with a .916 save percentage and elite goals‑saved‑above‑expected metrics.

Challengers include:

• Andrei Vasilevskiy – steady despite Tampa’s defensive injuries
• Logan Thompson – strong play for Vegas
• Dan Vladar – surprising top‑10 performance

Art Ross & Rocket Richard: MacKinnon Dominates Scoring Races

MacKinnon’s offensive surge also places him atop the Art Ross Trophy leaderboard with a projected 121 points, giving him a comfortable edge over Connor McDavid.

He also leads the Rocket Richard Trophy race as the NHL’s top goal‑scorer.

What Happens Next?

With three‑quarters of the season still ahead, these early projections could shift dramatically as teams adjust, injuries emerge, and players hit hot or cold streaks. But for now, MacKinnon, Makar, Schaefer, Suzuki, and Swayman have positioned themselves as the names to watch as the NHL Awards conversation intensifies.