2026 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Sean Penn Leads, But Competition Remains Fierce

As the 98th Academy Awards approach, the Best Supporting Actor category is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races. Sean Penn, who stars as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, is widely considered the frontrunner. Penn has already won major precursor awards, including the Actor Awards (formerly SAG) and the BAFTA, giving him strong momentum heading into Oscar night.

Penn, a two-time Best Actor winner for Mystic River (2003) and Milk (2008), could secure his third Oscar with this performance. His portrayal of Lockjaw — a menacing yet absurd antagonist — has been praised for its intensity and unsettling physicality.

Stellan Skarsgård and Delroy Lindo Pose Challenges

Despite Penn’s lead, the race is not without competition. Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe for his role in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, where he plays Gustav Borg, a playwright and absent father. Skarsgård’s nuanced performance has earned critical acclaim, and many believe he deserves recognition after decades of work.

Delroy Lindo, nominated for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, also remains a strong contender. His role as Delta Slim adds emotional weight to the film, and his performance has been praised for its depth and gravitas.

Other Notable Nominees

Jacob Elordi impressed audiences with his transformation in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, playing the monster under heavy prosthetics and makeup. His ability to convey emotion through physical performance has made him a standout.

Benicio del Toro, Penn’s co-star in One Battle After Another, is considered the dark horse. His portrayal of Sensei Sergio St. Carlos, a karate instructor who secretly helps undocumented immigrants escape persecution, has resonated with audiences. Though his screen time is limited, del Toro’s charm and humanity could surprise voters.

Why Penn May Still Prevail

While the category is stacked with talent, Penn’s sweep of key precursor awards suggests a sense of inevitability. His performance as Lockjaw is both terrifying and bizarrely comedic, embodying the kind of bold character work that often wins Oscars. Still, the possibility of an upset remains, especially with Skarsgård’s Globe win and del Toro’s critical support.

The Final Countdown

With the Oscars airing live on ABC and streaming on Hulu on March 15, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT, all eyes will be on the Dolby Theatre to see if Penn secures his third Academy Award or if another nominee pulls off a surprise victory.