The global theatrical box office is projected to reach $35 billion in 2026, according to new estimates from Gower Street Analytics. The forecast suggests a second year of growth for the film industry as it continues recovering from pandemic-era declines.
Analysts expect 2026 revenues to rise 5% over current projections for 2025, positioning the year to become the highest-grossing period since the pre-pandemic benchmark of 2019, which reached $42.3 billion.
“Especially in markets driven by Hollywood product, we expect the most significant growth,” said chief analyst Thomas Beranek, who led the forecast.
Industry Edges Closer to Pre-Pandemic Strength
At current exchange rates, the 2026 total will still fall 12% short of the 2017–2019 pre-pandemic average. However, analysts point to a stronger slate of releases, improved market stability and audience appetite for major franchises as signs of continued momentum.
Gower Street’s outlook breaks down projected gains across domestic and international markets:
Domestic (U.S./Canada): $9.9B, up 11% vs. 2025; down 14% vs. pre-pandemic average
International (excluding China): $18B, up 5% vs. 2025; down 11% vs. pre-pandemic average
China: $7.1B, down 4% vs. 2025
China’s conservative estimate reflects uncertainty due to shifting release schedules and fluctuating audience turnout.
Regional Forecasts for 2026
Analysts expect strong recovery in select international territories, with the following regional projections at current currency valuations:
EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa): $10.05B, +7% vs. 2025
Asia Pacific (excluding China): $5.3B, flat vs. 2025
Latin America: $2.65B, +9% vs. 2025
The outlook positions Europe and Latin America as key growth regions, benefiting from improved distribution, expanding cinema infrastructure and strong local-language content alongside Hollywood releases.
Franchise Power Expected to Drive Ticket Sales
Gower’s analysts point to an exceptionally strong 2026 release calendar as a major catalyst. The year is set to include new installments from historically high-performing franchises, including:
Avengers
Spider-Man
Star Wars
Toy Story
Dune
Scream
Hunger Games
Super Mario Bros.
Minions
Jumanji
The Fockers
Non-franchise titles could also generate solid returns. Anticipated releases include the musical biopic Michael, Moana live-action remake, and new films from directors Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey) and Steven Spielberg (Disclosure Day).
Forecasting Accuracy Strengthens Confidence
Gower Street highlighted past results to bolster confidence in this year’s models. The firm says:
Its early projection for 2024 was within 5% of the final year-end total.
For 2025, the current trajectory is within 2% of its original $33B forecast.
Still, analysts caution projections could shift with changing release calendars, untitled studio films, or unforeseen global events—factors that have heavily reshaped box office patterns in recent years.
If trends hold steady, 2026 could mark the industry’s strongest rebound since before COVID-19, driven by premium franchises, broad consumer enthusiasm and a more predictable theatrical marketplace.
