Universal Pictures’ upcoming sequel, “Wicked: For Good,” directed by Jon M. Chu, is on track for a massive $112M–$115M+ domestic opening when it hits theaters on November 21, 2025. The film, following the success of last year’s two-time Oscar-winning Wicked, is poised to dominate the Thanksgiving weekend box office once again, continuing the musical franchise’s record-breaking momentum.
What’s Driving the Hype
According to early tracking reports, Wicked: For Good is showing audience enthusiasm comparable to the original 2024 hit, which debuted with $112.5M and went on to gross $473.2M domestically and $756.4M globally.
The sequel, starring Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba and Ariana Grande as Glinda, boasts a 2-hour, 18-minute runtime, notably shorter than its predecessor. Its strong appeal among female audiences — over 70% of first-choice interest among women under and over 25 — signals a repeat of its blockbuster success.
Competing titles include Sony’s “Sisu: Road to Revenge,” which targets hardcore action fans, and Paramount’s “Running Man”, opening a week earlier. Yet, industry insiders expect Wicked: For Good to command premium formats like IMAX, Dolby, and 4DX, maintaining a wide theatrical footprint.
Analyst Insights & Industry Reactions
Box office analysts suggest that Wicked: For Good could revive a sluggish fall box office, mirroring last year’s record-setting Thanksgiving period. According to Deadline, awareness for the sequel matches the first film’s “unaided recognition,” a metric that signals strong word-of-mouth anticipation.
Director Jon M. Chu recently explained that the sequel focuses on expanding the emotional and moral complexity of the characters rather than revisiting the Wizard of Oz mythology, noting, “We wanted to show the cost of doing good — not just the magic.”
What It Means for Universal & Theaters
If projections hold, Wicked: For Good could deliver one of 2025’s top three openings, reinforcing Universal’s dominance in the musical fantasy genre. The film’s strong early performance would bolster holiday box office totals, especially in the absence of a competing R-rated tentpole like Gladiator 2 from last year.
The film’s expected success also sets a positive tone for the year-end release slate, which includes Disney’s “Moana 2” and Paramount’s “Running Man.”
Upcoming Releases & Industry Outlook
Following Wicked: For Good’s debut, studios will closely watch Disney’s “Zootopia 2” tracking next week, which could shape Thanksgiving weekend’s final box office forecast. Universal has also teased holiday programming tie-ins through NBC, including “Wicked: One Wonderful Night”, featuring musical performances from the film’s cast.
Sources
Deadline Hollywood – Anthony D’Alessandro, October 30, 2025
Comscore / Screen Engine PostTrak Data
Universal Pictures Official Press Release
NBC / Universal Television Programming Announcements
